Just some thoughts I have on this, fwiw:
1. I think that your pick making is advantaged if you actually own commercially produced picks in the first place, so if you've got the buck, even if you do plan to make your own at some point, spend the $$ on a set of picks now. You'll never miss the few dollars after they're gone (unless it means you don't eat, in which case, don't buy them
) and you'll be happy you have them.
2. Though it is true that eventually you will likely only end up using a small number of the picks you have in a 14 to 20 pc set, I still think it is well worth knowing what is out there. If money were no object for me I would order all sorts of picks and play with them some as I develop my tastes for each. I, like many others, tend to favor a very small number of the picks in my repertiore, I am glad I have the ones I do, and that I've had the opportunity to experience using all of them. It is part of the learning process.
3. A 20 piece set will do you just fine to start picking most of the deadbolts you will encounter. Really, the only time you'll need to vary from the basic tools are if you get into some of the specialty/high security locks. That will be some time, and you will have plenty of time to figure out what you might want. In all likelihood, when/if you reach this point you will make tools to fit your need. For now, the SO tools will do great.
4. Keep in mind as I say what I'm about to that I am a strong believer in learning and having resources at your disposal and will almost never dissuade someone from buying learning material. Having said all that, IMO, don't buy the books/videos/cds that they have on that site. There is likely nothing you will find there that you will not find already in print (sort of) on the net and, specifically, on this site. If you get stuck or have questions you have the advantage of having this community here to answer questions and help you through. I sersiously doubt that there is anything in that resource material that you wont get otherwise without having to pay for it. Take the money you would spend on that and maybe get yourself a nice set of warded picks or a fancy tension tools or something. Money better spent.
Hope this helps! Once again... happy picking!
db
